Active storm season likely – believe it or not
Last year, the hurricane forecast was too strong, but experts still say beware.
BY PATRICK LYNCH
May 23, 2007As with anything that involves odds and percentages, averages and medians – not to mention El Nino and La Nina – you never know with hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1. Tuesday, the scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center predicted a 75 percent chance that it will be more active than the average season of the past 50 or so years.
The forecast calls for 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes – Category 3 or stronger.
But it’s still hard to know what to make of the forecasts, even as we gain more historical data each year and as scientists say models are better than ever.
Last year’s spring forecasts – not just from NOAA but from noted climatologists at Colorado State University – vastly oversold the intensity of hurricane season.
And 2005, the year of Katrina and Rita, a shocking 27 tropical storms formed in the Atlantic basin. The forecast called for 12 to 15. Fifteen hurricanes developed; seven to nine were predicted.
Predictions in the three years previous, however, were quite accurate.
That may be reason enough not to shrug at the forecast for another busy season. But Gerald Bell, a NOAA scientist who announced the study Tuesday, gave another reason.
The Atlantic region remains only about 12 years into an “active” hurricane cycle that will likely last 25 to 40 years, Bell said.
This cycle began in 1995, after a less than active period from 1971 to 1994. Since 1995, the Atlantic coast has seen 12 hurricane strikes and the Gulf coast, 17. That is already almost the same number as during the preceding 24 years.
Nine of the 12 seasons since 1995 have seen above-average intensity.
“Last year’s activity should not be considered an indication that this active hurricane era has ended,” Bell said. “There is no indication this active hurricane era has ended.”
The 2006 season was clipped largely due to a rapidly developing El Nino system, Bell said.
That will not happen this year, he predicted.
But a La Nina effect could intensify tropical storms.
NOAA and National Weather Service officials used the occasion of the forecast to say that no matter what the prediction, just one storm can cause huge devastation. Hurricane Andrew caused $25 billion in damage to Florida in 1992 despite coming in a year with a below-average intensity forecast.
Speaking of the lull in storms in 2006, National Hurricane Center Director Bill Proenza said, “We’re always concerned that infrequency can be disarming.”
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